题目：The Transition of Fertility Intention Propensity of Chinese Web-Users——The Application of Public Opinion Big Data Analysis

主讲人：李婷（中国人民大学社会与人口学院学副教授）

时间：2019年11月20日12:00—13:30

地点：北京大学理科五号楼521会议室

工作语言：中文

李婷，中国人民大学社会与人口学院副教授。北京大学数学学院概率统计学学士，美国华盛顿大学（西雅图）生态人口学博士，美国北卡大学人口研究中心博士后。主要研究方向为死亡、健康与人口老龄化，中国人口和家庭转变，统计方法和大数据在人口学中的应用等。研究成果发表于《Demography》、《Population Studies》、《Demographic Research》、《Social Science & Medicine》等国际期刊以及《人口研究》、《中国人口科学》等中文期刊。获国家万人计划“青年拔尖”人才称号，以及第十六届霍英东青年教师研究基金。

摘要：

This study explores how to use the public opinion big data to infer the transition of fertility intention propensity of Chinese web-users. By comparing results from the simple sentiment analysis, the LDA un-supervised classification, and the fasttext supervised classification, it is found that the supervised classification based on the theory of planned behavior yields more accurate and meaningful results. Since 2012, the dominant opinion of fertility intention changes from positive to negative, during the process of which there is a shift of topics. The comments regarding perceived controls have replaced those related to behavioral beliefs as the most popular opinions for fertility. Housing price, children’s education, and work are the most mentioned key words in the category of perceived controls. The strong correlation between fertility intention and fertility level among Chinese provinces validates the fertility intention analyses. We also discuss the prospect of applying public opinion data in demographic research.